Valued at $3.46 trillion, semiconductor giant Nvidia (NVDA) is not only riding the artificial intelligence (AI) wave, but also defining its direction. The company is rapidly expanding across nearly every AI frontier, including data centers, robotics, software ecosystems, gaming, cybersecurity, and sovereign infrastructure. However, recent geopolitical and regulatory headwinds have prompted some concern. 

Despite strong gains last year, Nvidia stock is up only 7.4% year to date. Nonetheless, Wall Street predicts Nvidia’s stock will rise to $220 over the next 12 months. Let’s see if the stock is currently a buy.

Nvidia Powers Through Challenges

Nvidia started fiscal 2026 with another great quarter. The company reported revenue of $44 billion, a 69% increase year over year, with Data Center revenue of $39 billion, up 73% YOY. This expansion reflects Nvidia’s dominant position in the generative AI and data center markets, despite an unexpected regulatory disruption. In April 2025, the U.S. government imposed new export controls on the NVIDIA H20 GPU, which was developed specifically for China. Despite prior approvals and over a year of H20 shipments in the market, the controls were implemented without a grace period. As a result, Nvidia was unable to ship $2.5 billion worth of H20 orders in Q1, incurring a $4.5 billion inventory and purchase obligation charge.

The good news is that Nvidia recognized $4.6 billion in H20 revenue before the restrictions, which partially mitigated the impact. The company is also now looking into compliant product options for the Chinese market. However, in the Q1 earnings call, management cautioned that losing access to China's $50 billion AI accelerator market could have a significant negative impact, allowing foreign competitors to gain market share. Despite the China setback, Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture is gaining traction, cementing its position as the industry standard in AI computing. CFO Colette Kress described the Blackwell ramp as “the fastest in our company's history,” with the architecture now accounting for nearly 70% of data center compute revenue.

The first quarter also saw an increase in the number of AI factory projects powered by Nvidia, with nearly 100 currently underway. These factories are specialized hyperscale deployments for training, serving, and refining AI models. Furthermore, Nvidia’s vision for AI is rapidly transitioning from generative AI to agentic AI, which can reason, plan, and act independently.

Nvidia’s record-breaking quarter cements its position at the forefront of the AI revolution. The Blackwell platform is growing faster than any other architecture in the company’s history. Demand for inference, particularly from agentic models, is skyrocketing in enterprises and cloud platforms. However, CEO Jensen Huang expressed concern about the long-term implications of the current U.S. export policy. With 50% of the world’s AI researchers based in China, Huang warns that excluding the Chinese market strengthens its domestic AI ecosystem while weakening U.S. influence. He emphasized that China has the manufacturing capacity and talent to develop competitive AI chips, challenging the notion that U.S. leadership can be sustained solely through containment efforts.

Analysts predict that Nvidia’s earnings will increase by 43% in fiscal 2026, followed by an additional 34% in fiscal 2027. Nvidia is currently trading at 33 times forward earnings, which is slightly pricey. Investing in Nvidia stock at this high valuation carries significant risk. However, for long-term investors who support the AI revolution and believe in Nvidia’s ability to scale and innovate, Nvidia stock remains a compelling investment.

What Is The Target Price for Nvidia Stock?

Nvidia continues to receive strong support from Wall Street. Recently, DBS analyst Fang Boon Foo reaffirmed the stock’s “Buy” rating. Foo’s bullish outlook is supported by Nvidia’s strong market leadership and growing role in global AI infrastructure. Foo is impressed by Huang’s ambitious plan to build AI factories across Europe, which signals Nvidia’s growing global presence in AI hardware and services. Foo remains optimistic about Nvidia’s prospects, citing potential tailwinds from semiconductor tariff policies and continued capital expenditure by major tech firms. 

Separately, Evercore ISI echoed this sentiment, maintaining its “Buy” rating and a $190 price target. 

On Wall Street, Nvidia stock remains a “Strong Buy.” Of the 44 analysts that cover the stock, 37 recommend a “Strong Buy,” three rate it a “Moderate Buy,” three say it is a “Hold,” and one recommends a “Strong Sell.”  The mean target price for the stock is $174.02, which is 20% above current levels. The Street-high estimate of $220, set by Tigress Financial, implies upside of 50% over the next 12 months.